A quantitative and qualitative approach on the evaluation of technological pathways: A comparative national-scale Delphi study

Arho Suominen; Arash Hajikhani; Antti Ahola; Yutato Kurogi; Kuniko Urashima

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.102967

A quantitative and qualitative approach on the evaluation of technological pathways: A comparative national-scale Delphi study

Arho Suominen
, Arash Hajikhani^*
, Antti Ahola
, Yutato Kurogi
, Kuniko Urashima

^*Corresponding author for this work

Industrial Engineering and Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

54 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The Delphi approach is a central method in technological forecasting. It has been used in thousands of scholarly works and extensively outside academia, often in relatively narrowly scoped case studies. With the notable exception of Japan and a few other countries, broad Delphi studies run in the context of national-level policy planning are seldom seen. This study presents results on implementing the long-running Japanese Science and Technology Prediction Delphi survey developed by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Finland. This study reports the implementation of the 702 statement Delphi and on the reflections of the expert opinion study against quantitative data on Finnish research capabilities. The differences in expert opinion are discussed between Japanese and Finnish experts and the importance is highlighted that contextual factors play in responses received from the experts even on extremely global issues, such as the development of science and technology. It is proposed that quantitative data can serve as an important contextualization tool for the expert opinion results.

Original language	English
Article number	102967
Journal	Futures
Volume	140
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102967
Publication status	Published - Jun 2022
Publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Dr. Ilmari Absetz (Business Finland), Paula Eskola (Motiva Oy), Dr. Jutta Kauppi (Business Finland), and Soile Ollila ( Business Finland ). In addition, the authors also thank Mr. Teppo Turkki who works for the Finnish embassy in Japan. He supported and coordinated enhancing this project between Japan and Finland. Partial funding for the research was received from Business Finland. A previous version of the results have been presented as a report available on the Business Finland website https://www.businessfinland.fi/49e9fd/globalassets/finnish-customers/02-build-your-network/bioeconomy--cleantech/biocircular-finland/foresight-for-our-circular-economy-society.pdf.

Keywords

Delphi study
National scale study
Policy planning
Qualitative and quantitative analysis
Technological pathways

Publication forum classification

Publication forum level 2

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Decision Sciences
Business and International Management
Development
Sociology and Political Science
General Social Sciences

Access to Document

10.1016/j.futures.2022.102967Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S0016328722000672-mainFinal published version, 5.57 MBLicence: CC BY

https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202208096305Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "The Delphi approach is a central method in technological forecasting. It has been used in thousands of scholarly works and extensively outside academia, often in relatively narrowly scoped case studies. With the notable exception of Japan and a few other countries, broad Delphi studies run in the context of national-level policy planning are seldom seen. This study presents results on implementing the long-running Japanese Science and Technology Prediction Delphi survey developed by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Finland. This study reports the implementation of the 702 statement Delphi and on the reflections of the expert opinion study against quantitative data on Finnish research capabilities. The differences in expert opinion are discussed between Japanese and Finnish experts and the importance is highlighted that contextual factors play in responses received from the experts even on extremely global issues, such as the development of science and technology. It is proposed that quantitative data can serve as an important contextualization tool for the expert opinion results.",

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author = "Arho Suominen and Arash Hajikhani and Antti Ahola and Yutato Kurogi and Kuniko Urashima",

note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Dr. Ilmari Absetz (Business Finland), Paula Eskola (Motiva Oy), Dr. Jutta Kauppi (Business Finland), and Soile Ollila ( Business Finland ). In addition, the authors also thank Mr. Teppo Turkki who works for the Finnish embassy in Japan. He supported and coordinated enhancing this project between Japan and Finland. Partial funding for the research was received from Business Finland. A previous version of the results have been presented as a report available on the Business Finland website https://www.businessfinland.fi/49e9fd/globalassets/finnish-customers/02-build-your-network/bioeconomy--cleantech/biocircular-finland/foresight-for-our-circular-economy-society.pdf. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

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doi = "10.1016/j.futures.2022.102967",

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AU - Kurogi, Yutato

AU - Urashima, Kuniko

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PY - 2022/6

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N2 - The Delphi approach is a central method in technological forecasting. It has been used in thousands of scholarly works and extensively outside academia, often in relatively narrowly scoped case studies. With the notable exception of Japan and a few other countries, broad Delphi studies run in the context of national-level policy planning are seldom seen. This study presents results on implementing the long-running Japanese Science and Technology Prediction Delphi survey developed by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Finland. This study reports the implementation of the 702 statement Delphi and on the reflections of the expert opinion study against quantitative data on Finnish research capabilities. The differences in expert opinion are discussed between Japanese and Finnish experts and the importance is highlighted that contextual factors play in responses received from the experts even on extremely global issues, such as the development of science and technology. It is proposed that quantitative data can serve as an important contextualization tool for the expert opinion results.

AB - The Delphi approach is a central method in technological forecasting. It has been used in thousands of scholarly works and extensively outside academia, often in relatively narrowly scoped case studies. With the notable exception of Japan and a few other countries, broad Delphi studies run in the context of national-level policy planning are seldom seen. This study presents results on implementing the long-running Japanese Science and Technology Prediction Delphi survey developed by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Finland. This study reports the implementation of the 702 statement Delphi and on the reflections of the expert opinion study against quantitative data on Finnish research capabilities. The differences in expert opinion are discussed between Japanese and Finnish experts and the importance is highlighted that contextual factors play in responses received from the experts even on extremely global issues, such as the development of science and technology. It is proposed that quantitative data can serve as an important contextualization tool for the expert opinion results.

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M1 - 102967

ER -

A quantitative and qualitative approach on the evaluation of technological pathways: A comparative national-scale Delphi study

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

Publication forum classification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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