HbA1c as a time predictive biomarker for an additional islet autoantibody and type 1 diabetes in seroconverted TEDDY children

TEDDY Study Group, Falastin Salami, Roy Tamura, Lu You, Åke Lernmark, Helena Elding Larsson, Markus Lundgren, Jeffrey Krischer, Anette-Gabriele Ziegler, Jorma Toppari, Riitta Veijola, Marian Rewers, Michael J Haller, William Hagopian, Beena Akolkar, Carina Törn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review


BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Increased level of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is associated with type 1 diabetes onset that in turn is preceded by one to several autoantibodies against the pancreatic islet beta cell autoantigens; insulin (IA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), islet antigen-2 (IA-2) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8). The risk for type 1 diabetes diagnosis increases by autoantibody number. Biomarkers predicting the development of a second or a subsequent autoantibody and type 1 diabetes are needed to predict disease stages and improve secondary prevention trials. This study aimed to investigate whether HbA1c possibly predicts the progression from first to a subsequent autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children participating in the Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study.

METHODS: A joint model was designed to assess the association of longitudinal HbA1c levels with the development of first (insulin or GAD autoantibodies) to a second, second to third, third to fourth autoantibody or type 1 diabetes in healthy children prospectively followed from birth until 15 years of age.

RESULTS: It was found that increased levels of HbA1c were associated with a higher risk of type 1 diabetes (HR 1.82, 95% CI [1.57-2.10], p<0.001) regardless of first appearing autoantibody, autoantibody number or type. A decrease in HbA1c levels was associated with the development of IA-2A as a second autoantibody following GADA (HR 0.85, 95% CI [0.75,0.97], p=0.017) and a fourth autoantibody following GADA, IAA and ZnT8A (HR 0.90, 95% CI [0.82,0.99], p=0.036). HbA1c trajectory analyses showed a significant increase of HbA1c over time (p<0.001) and that the increase is more rapid as the number of autoantibodies increased from one to three (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION: In conclusion, increased HbA1c is a reliable time predictive marker for type 1 diabetes onset. The increased rate of increase of HbA1c from first to third autoantibody and the decrease in HbA1c predicting the development of IA-2A are novel findings proving the link between HbA1c and the appearance of autoantibodies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1586-1593
JournalPediatric Diabetes
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes
Publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


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