Long-term population effects of infant 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on pneumococcal meningitis in Finland

Background: No previous studies have reported long-term follow-up of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) program impact on pneumococcal meningitis (PM). We assessed the effects of infant PCV10 program on PM incidence, mortality and serotype distribution in children and adults during 7 years after introduction. Methods: We conducted a population-based observational study. A case of PM was defined as isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae from cerebrospinal fluid or, a patient with S. pneumoniae isolated from blood and an ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis of bacterial meningitis within 30 days before or after positive culture date. We compared age- and serotype-specific incidence and associated 30-day mortality rates in 2011–2017 (PCV10 period) with those in 2004–2010 (pre-PCV10 baseline) by using Poisson regression models. Absolute rate differences and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from the parameter estimates by using delta method. Results: During the PCV10 period, the overall incidence of PCV10 serotype meningitis decreased by 68% (95%CI 57%-77%), and the overall PM incidence by 27% (95%CI: 12%-39%). In age groups 0–4, 50–64, and ≥ 18 years, the overall PM incidence was reduced by 64%, 34% and 19%, respectively. In adults ≥ 65 years of age, a 69% reduction in PCV10 serotypes was offset by 157% (56%-342%) increase in non-PCV10 serotypes. The overall PM-related mortality rate decreased by 42% (95%CI 4%-65%). Overall case fatality proportion (CFP) was 16% in pre-PCV10 period and 12% in PCV10 period (p = 0.41); among persons 50–64 years the CFP decreased from 25% to 10% (p = 0.04). Conclusions: We observed substantial impact and herd protection for vaccine-serotype PM and associated mortality after infant PCV10 introduction. However, in older adults ≥ 65 years of age, PM burden remains unchanged due to serotype replacement.