Modeling building stock development

Antti Kurvinen, Arto Saari, Juhani Heljo, Eero Nippala

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)
12 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

It is widely agreed that dynamics of building stocks are relatively poorly known even if it is recognized to be an important research topic. Better understanding of building stock dynamics and future development is crucial, e.g., for sustainable management of the built environment as various analyses require long-term projections of building stock development. Recognizing the uncertainty in relation to long-term modeling, we propose a transparent calculation-based QuantiSTOCK model for modeling building stock development. Our approach not only provides a tangible tool for understanding development when selected assumptions are valid but also, most importantly, allows for studying the sensitivity of results to alternative developments of the key variables. Therefore, this relatively simple modeling approach provides fruitful grounds for understanding the impact of different key variables, which is needed to facilitate meaningful debate on different housing, land use, and environment-related policies. The QuantiSTOCK model may be extended in numerous ways and lays the groundwork for modeling the future developments of building stocks. The presented model may be used in a wide range of analyses ranging from assessing housing demand at the regional level to providing input for defining sustainable pathways towards climate targets. Due to the availability of high-quality data, the Finnish building stock provided a great test arena for the model development.

Original languageEnglish
Article number723
Number of pages17
JournalSustainability (Switzerland)
Volume13
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021
Publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Building stock development
  • Commercial buildings
  • Modeling
  • Mortality of building stock
  • Public buildings
  • Residential buildings

Publication forum classification

  • Publication forum level 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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