Modeling of Age-Dependent Failure Tendency from Incomplete Data

P. Hagmark, J. Laitinen

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper addresses modeling of age-dependent failure rates from incomplete data that includes interval-censored failure ages. Two estimators for cumulative failure rates are presented: a simple non-parametric estimator and a maximum-likelihood method based on the gamma distribution and the non-homogeneous Poisson process. The maximum-likelihood fit of familiar parametric models (e.g., the power law) to the available field data from an aircraft component was far from satisfactory, so a special three-parameter model function had to be worked out. The maximum-likelihood estimate obtained is then used for repeated random generation of different data sets akin to the field data. This way the effect of data set size, censoring rate, and randomness on the non-parametric estimate can be analyzed to get practical appraisals.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationEngineering Asset Management 2011
    Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the Sixth World Congress on Engineering Asset Management
    EditorsJay Lee, Jun Ni, Jagnathan Sarangapani, Joseph Mathew
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherSpringer-Verlag London Limited
    Pages449-459
    Number of pages11
    ISBN (Print)978-1-4471-4993-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    Publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
    EventWorld Congress on Engineering Asset Management -
    Duration: 1 Jan 1900 → …

    Publication series

    NameLecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering
    ISSN (Print)2195-4356

    Conference

    ConferenceWorld Congress on Engineering Asset Management
    Period1/01/00 → …

    Publication forum classification

    • Publication forum level 0

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