Perioperative acinar cell count method works well in the prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula and other postoperative complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background: Earlier we have shown that high frequency of acinar cells in the pancreatic transsection line predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Acinar cell count method (ACM) is fast to perform during operation. In this study our aim was to validate the accuracy of ACM to compare it with other published risk prediction methods. Methods: 87 patients who underwent PD without any trial including perioperative medications were collected from a single hospital. Data on demographics, surgical details, postoperative complications clinically relevant pancreatic fistulae (CR-POPF) and clinically relevant Clavien-Dindo complications (CR-CDC) were registered. Thirteen previously published risk prediction methods were included in the comparison, such as pancreatic duct diameter, palpable texture of pancreas, Braga score (BC), Fistula Risk Score, Modified Fistula Risk Score, Alternative Fistula Risk Score and multiple radiological parameters. ROC-curves were calculated to compare sensitivity and specificity for identifying high risk patients for CR-POPF and CR-CDC. Results: The three most accurate risk prediction methods for CR-POPF were ACM (sensitivity 88.9%, specificity 52.6%; p = 0.043), BC (87.5%, 56.6%; p = 0.039) and visceral fat area to subcutaneous fat area ratio (75.5%, 80.0%; p = 0.032). In predicting CR-CDC the three most accurate methods were ACM (73.9%, 56.2%; p = 0.033), BC (68.4%, 59.5%; p = 0.036) and TPAI (78.3%, 41.7%; p = 0.012). Conclusion: ACM was shown to be as good as the more complicated risk scoring methods in the prediction of CR-POPF. It was good also in predicting all clinically relevant complications. ACM is easy to use during operation and can be recommended as a routine risk prediction method.