Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Anna Chrysafi; Vili Virkki; Mika Jalava; Vilma Sandström; Johannes Piipponen; Miina Porkka; Steven J. Lade; Kelsey La Mere; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Laura Scherer; Lauren S. Andersen; Elena Bennett; Kate A. Brauman; Gregory S. Cooper; Adriana De Palma; Petra Döll; Andrea S. Downing; Timothy C. DuBois; Ingo Fetzer; Elizabeth A. Fulton; Dieter Gerten; Hadi Jaafar; Jonas Jägermeyr; Fernando Jaramillo; Martin Jung; Helena Kahiluoto; Luis Lassaletta; Anson W. Mackay; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Mesfin M. Mekonnen; Kirsty L. Nash; Amandine V. Pastor; Navin Ramankutty; Brad Ridoutt; Stefan Siebert; Benno I. Simmons; Arie Staal; Zhongxiao Sun; Arne Tobian; Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño; Ruud J. van der Ent; Arnout van Soesbergen; Peter H. Verburg; Yoshihide Wada; Sam Zipper; Matti Kummu

doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Anna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki, Mika Jalava, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, Miina Porkka, Steven J. Lade, Kelsey La Mere, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Laura Scherer, Lauren S. Andersen, Elena Bennett, Kate A. Brauman, Gregory S. Cooper, Adriana De Palma, Petra Döll, Andrea S. Downing, Timothy C. DuBois, Ingo Fetzer, Elizabeth A. FultonDieter Gerten, Hadi Jaafar, Jonas Jägermeyr, Fernando Jaramillo, Martin Jung, Helena Kahiluoto, Luis Lassaletta, Anson W. Mackay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Kirsty L. Nash, Amandine V. Pastor, Navin Ramankutty, Brad Ridoutt, Stefan Siebert, Benno I. Simmons, Arie Staal, Zhongxiao Sun, Arne Tobian, Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño, Ruud J. van der Ent, Arnout van Soesbergen, Peter H. Verburg, Yoshihide Wada, Sam Zipper, Matti Kummu

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Abstract

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	830-842
Number of pages	13
Journal	Nature Sustainability
Volume	5
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6
Publication status	Published - Oct 2022
Publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Publication forum classification

Publication forum level 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Global and Planetary Change
Food Science
Geography, Planning and Development
Ecology
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Urban Studies
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Quantifying Earth system interactionsFinal published version, 3.91 MBLicence: CC BY

https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:tuni-202210318029Licence: CC BY

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Chrysafi, A., Virkki, V., Jalava, M., Sandström, V., Piipponen, J., Porkka, M., Lade, S. J., La Mere, K., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Scherer, L., Andersen, L. S., Bennett, E., Brauman, K. A., Cooper, G. S., De Palma, A., Döll, P., Downing, A. S., DuBois, T. C., Fetzer, I., ... Kummu, M. (2022). Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. Nature Sustainability, 5(10), 830-842. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

@article{42465467c9bd439a8276316ed6981c27,

title = "Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation",

abstract = "Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.",

author = "Anna Chrysafi and Vili Virkki and Mika Jalava and Vilma Sandstr{\"o}m and Johannes Piipponen and Miina Porkka and Lade, {Steven J.} and {La Mere}, Kelsey and Lan Wang-Erlandsson and Laura Scherer and Andersen, {Lauren S.} and Elena Bennett and Brauman, {Kate A.} and Cooper, {Gregory S.} and {De Palma}, Adriana and Petra D{\"o}ll and Downing, {Andrea S.} and DuBois, {Timothy C.} and Ingo Fetzer and Fulton, {Elizabeth A.} and Dieter Gerten and Hadi Jaafar and Jonas J{\"a}germeyr and Fernando Jaramillo and Martin Jung and Helena Kahiluoto and Luis Lassaletta and Mackay, {Anson W.} and Daniel Mason-D{\textquoteright}Croz and Mekonnen, {Mesfin M.} and Nash, {Kirsty L.} and Pastor, {Amandine V.} and Navin Ramankutty and Brad Ridoutt and Stefan Siebert and Simmons, {Benno I.} and Arie Staal and Zhongxiao Sun and Arne Tobian and Arkaitz Usubiaga-Lia{\~n}o and {van der Ent}, {Ruud J.} and {van Soesbergen}, Arnout and Verburg, {Peter H.} and Yoshihide Wada and Sam Zipper and Matti Kummu",

note = "Funding Information: This study was funded by the European Research Council under the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 819202), Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme, Maa- ja vesitekniikan tuki ry and the Academy of Finland-funded project TREFORM (grant no. 339834). M.P. was supported by the Erling Persson Family Foundation. B.I.S. is supported by a Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 Research Fellowship. L.W.-E, A.T., I.F, L.S.A. and T.D. acknowledge financial support from the European 1225 Research Council through the {\textquoteleft}Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene{\textquoteright} project (no. ERC-2016-1226 ADG 743080). K.L.N. was supported by Australian Research Council funding (DE210100606). A.U.-L. was supported by Mar{\'i}a de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2018–2022 (ref. MDM-2017-0714), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ and by the Basque Government through the BERC 2022-2025 programme. J.J. was supported by the NASA GISS Climate Impacts Group and the Open Philanthropy Project. Z.S. was supported by Chinese Universities Scientific Fund (2022TC098). L.L. is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and European Commission ERDF Ram{\'o}n y Cajal grant (RYC-2016-20269) and Programa Propio from the Universidad Polit{\'e}cnica de Madrid. S.J.L. is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project no. FT200100381) funded by the Australian Government. We would like to thank members of the Water and Development group for testing an earlier version of the elicitation web application and A. Fallon for language checking of the manuscript. A.S. was supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) Talent Program Grant VI.Veni.202.170. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2022",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6",

language = "English",

volume = "5",

pages = "830--842",

number = "10",

}

Chrysafi, A, Virkki, V, Jalava, M, Sandström, V, Piipponen, J, Porkka, M, Lade, SJ, La Mere, K, Wang-Erlandsson, L, Scherer, L, Andersen, LS, Bennett, E, Brauman, KA, Cooper, GS, De Palma, A, Döll, P, Downing, AS, DuBois, TC, Fetzer, I, Fulton, EA, Gerten, D, Jaafar, H, Jägermeyr, J, Jaramillo, F, Jung, M, Kahiluoto, H, Lassaletta, L, Mackay, AW, Mason-D’Croz, D, Mekonnen, MM, Nash, KL, Pastor, AV, Ramankutty, N, Ridoutt, B, Siebert, S, Simmons, BI, Staal, A, Sun, Z, Tobian, A, Usubiaga-Liaño, A, van der Ent, RJ, van Soesbergen, A, Verburg, PH, Wada, Y, Zipper, S & Kummu, M 2022, 'Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation', Nature Sustainability, vol. 5, no. 10, pp. 830-842. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

AU - Chrysafi, Anna

AU - Virkki, Vili

AU - Jalava, Mika

AU - Sandström, Vilma

AU - Piipponen, Johannes

AU - Porkka, Miina

AU - Lade, Steven J.

AU - La Mere, Kelsey

AU - Wang-Erlandsson, Lan

AU - Scherer, Laura

AU - Andersen, Lauren S.

AU - Bennett, Elena

AU - Brauman, Kate A.

AU - Cooper, Gregory S.

AU - De Palma, Adriana

AU - Döll, Petra

AU - Downing, Andrea S.

AU - DuBois, Timothy C.

AU - Fetzer, Ingo

AU - Fulton, Elizabeth A.

AU - Gerten, Dieter

AU - Jaafar, Hadi

AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas

AU - Jaramillo, Fernando

AU - Jung, Martin

AU - Kahiluoto, Helena

AU - Lassaletta, Luis

AU - Mackay, Anson W.

AU - Mason-D’Croz, Daniel

AU - Mekonnen, Mesfin M.

AU - Nash, Kirsty L.

AU - Pastor, Amandine V.

AU - Ramankutty, Navin

AU - Ridoutt, Brad

AU - Siebert, Stefan

AU - Simmons, Benno I.

AU - Staal, Arie

AU - Sun, Zhongxiao

AU - Tobian, Arne

AU - Usubiaga-Liaño, Arkaitz

AU - van der Ent, Ruud J.

AU - van Soesbergen, Arnout

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

AU - Wada, Yoshihide

AU - Zipper, Sam

AU - Kummu, Matti

N1 - Funding Information: This study was funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 819202), Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme, Maa- ja vesitekniikan tuki ry and the Academy of Finland-funded project TREFORM (grant no. 339834). M.P. was supported by the Erling Persson Family Foundation. B.I.S. is supported by a Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 Research Fellowship. L.W.-E, A.T., I.F, L.S.A. and T.D. acknowledge financial support from the European 1225 Research Council through the ‘Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene’ project (no. ERC-2016-1226 ADG 743080). K.L.N. was supported by Australian Research Council funding (DE210100606). A.U.-L. was supported by María de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2018–2022 (ref. MDM-2017-0714), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/ and by the Basque Government through the BERC 2022-2025 programme. J.J. was supported by the NASA GISS Climate Impacts Group and the Open Philanthropy Project. Z.S. was supported by Chinese Universities Scientific Fund (2022TC098). L.L. is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and European Commission ERDF Ramón y Cajal grant (RYC-2016-20269) and Programa Propio from the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. S.J.L. is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (project no. FT200100381) funded by the Australian Government. We would like to thank members of the Water and Development group for testing an earlier version of the elicitation web application and A. Fallon for language checking of the manuscript. A.S. was supported by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) Talent Program Grant VI.Veni.202.170. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/10

Y1 - 2022/10

N2 - Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

AB - Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

U2 - 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

DO - 10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85136069718

SN - 2398-9629

VL - 5

SP - 830

EP - 842

JO - Nature Sustainability

JF - Nature Sustainability

IS - 10

ER -

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

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