TY - JOUR
T1 - Time trends in mobile phone use and glioma incidence among males in the Nordic Countries, 1979–2016
AU - Deltour, Isabelle
AU - Poulsen, Aslak Harbo
AU - Johansen, Christoffer
AU - Feychting, Maria
AU - Johannesen, Tom Børge
AU - Auvinen, Anssi
AU - Schüz, Joachim
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS; grant FM 8867). A technical report to the funder can be found at http://doris.bfs.de/jspui/handle/urn:nbn:de:0221-2022063033222. The authors thank the Cancer Registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden for providing the incidence data. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer /World Health Organization.
Funding Information:
This study was supported by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS; grant FM 8867). A technical report to the funder can be found at http://doris.bfs.de/jspui/handle/urn:nbn:de:0221-2022063033222 . The authors thank the Cancer Registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden for providing the incidence data. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer /World Health Organization.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022
PY - 2022/10
Y1 - 2022/10
N2 - Introduction: In the Nordic countries, the use of mobile phones increased sharply in the mid-1990s especially among middle-aged men. We investigated time trends in glioma incidence rates (IR) with the perspective to inform about the plausibility of brain tumour risks from mobile phone use reported in some case-control studies. Methods: We analysed IR of glioma in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden among men aged 40–69 years, using data from national cancer registries and population statistics during 1979–2016, using log-linear joinpoint analysis. Information on regular mobile phone use and amount of call-time was obtained from major studies of mobile phones in these countries. We compared annual observed incidence with that expected under various risk scenarios to assess which of the reported effect sizes are compatible with the observed IR. The expected numbers of cases were computed accounting for an impact of other factors besides mobile phone use, such as improved cancer registration. Results: Based on 18,232 glioma cases, IR increased slightly but steadily with a change of 0.1% (95 %CI 0.0%; 0.3%) per year during 1979–2016 among 40–59-year-old men and for ages 60–69, by 0.6 % (95 %CI 0.4; 0.9) annually. The observed IR trends among men aged 40–59 years were incompatible with risk ratios (RR) 1.08 or higher with a 10-year lag, RR ≥ 1.2 with 15-year lag and RR ≥ 1.5 with 20-year lag. For the age group 60–69 years, corresponding effect sizes RR ≥ 1.4, ≥2 and ≥ 2.5 could be rejected for lag times 10, 15 and 20 years. Discussion: This study confirms and reinforces the conclusions that no changes in glioma incidence in the Nordic countries have occurred that are consistent with a substantial risk attributable to mobile phone use. This particularly applies to virtually all reported risk increases reported by previous case-control studies with positive findings.
AB - Introduction: In the Nordic countries, the use of mobile phones increased sharply in the mid-1990s especially among middle-aged men. We investigated time trends in glioma incidence rates (IR) with the perspective to inform about the plausibility of brain tumour risks from mobile phone use reported in some case-control studies. Methods: We analysed IR of glioma in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden among men aged 40–69 years, using data from national cancer registries and population statistics during 1979–2016, using log-linear joinpoint analysis. Information on regular mobile phone use and amount of call-time was obtained from major studies of mobile phones in these countries. We compared annual observed incidence with that expected under various risk scenarios to assess which of the reported effect sizes are compatible with the observed IR. The expected numbers of cases were computed accounting for an impact of other factors besides mobile phone use, such as improved cancer registration. Results: Based on 18,232 glioma cases, IR increased slightly but steadily with a change of 0.1% (95 %CI 0.0%; 0.3%) per year during 1979–2016 among 40–59-year-old men and for ages 60–69, by 0.6 % (95 %CI 0.4; 0.9) annually. The observed IR trends among men aged 40–59 years were incompatible with risk ratios (RR) 1.08 or higher with a 10-year lag, RR ≥ 1.2 with 15-year lag and RR ≥ 1.5 with 20-year lag. For the age group 60–69 years, corresponding effect sizes RR ≥ 1.4, ≥2 and ≥ 2.5 could be rejected for lag times 10, 15 and 20 years. Discussion: This study confirms and reinforces the conclusions that no changes in glioma incidence in the Nordic countries have occurred that are consistent with a substantial risk attributable to mobile phone use. This particularly applies to virtually all reported risk increases reported by previous case-control studies with positive findings.
KW - Cancer registry
KW - Glioma
KW - Mobile phones
KW - Modelling
U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107487
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107487
M3 - Article
C2 - 36041243
AN - SCOPUS:85136664931
SN - 0160-4120
VL - 168
JO - Environment International
JF - Environment International
M1 - 107487
ER -