"We are Safe - It Is Strategic Planning!" Lost in Deep Uncertainty

This discussion paper looks at some recent scholarly debates on the concept of uncertainty regarding urban planning in the digital age. It argues that uncertainty in planning is by and large considered as something that actually requires ‘solving’ in some way or another, following the persistent thought that uncertainty is somehow solvable. It recognizes the different concepts used to discuss and ‘tackle’ uncertainty in planning theory, and the currently popular distinction to ‘known’ and ‘unknown unknowns’. Yet the idea of fundamental uncertainty, deep uncertainty (DU), is underlying all genuinely complex systems. Without that very notion, a system under observation, description or model, may be complicated but not in fact complex.
DU is poorly identified and operationalized in planning theory and practice due to its counterintuitive character with planning thought. Some prominent theoretical breakouts from the current paradigm towards more DU‐sensitive planning and design are discussed. The paper applies strategic planning processes as a lens to discuss deep uncertainty, drawing the attention back to the decades‐old questions of planning and non‐planning and navigation between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ self‐organization.