Approach to Estimate Congestion Management Related Flexibility Needs during a Planned Outage in a Transmission Grid

The predictability of power ows in an electricity transmission grid is becoming more complex and there is an increasing need for exibility. The changes in the operational environment challenge the currently used methods of outage planning of a transmission grid. Currently, there is lack of methods capable to estimate the power ows, voltages, grid congestions and exibility needs of a region in a time frame of one to three years prior to a planned outage. As a solution, this paper presents an approach based on market modeling and time series to estimate the power ows, voltages, grid congestions and exibility needs in outage planning. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, the paper presents the results of a case study of a generation surplus region in Finland. The results of the case study show that the presented approach is capable to estimate exibility needs in the context of outage planning.