Baltic Sea 2030 - Trends and scenarios

The current Baltic Sea logistics system is a result of an optimisation process by industry, ports, shipowners and other stakeholders, all adapting to changes in the operating environment and building strategies for the future. As a result of this process we see the current logistics system, but the parameters of the optimisation process are changing constantly. Global directions of change are called megatrends and common megatrends include: globalisation and increasing importance of Asia, global political issues but national interest, rising energy demand and increase in alternative energy sources, climate change, increasing pace of technological development and urbanisation.

In this study five trend categories were identified based on the megatrends and considered in terms of their effect on the Baltic Sea logistics system. The trends were also analysed by their significance and affectability by maritime sector in order to give the actors a better understanding of the trends which may and should be affected.

Four scenarios were build based on the trends. The age of growth scenario is characterised by steady economic growth, growing importance of service sector and restoration of trade between Russia and Europe. The age of regulation, on the other hand, is defined by slow economic development due to strict environmental regulation and lack of innovations in heavy industry. The age of locality could be sparked by rapid climate change which would lead to high price of energy and resulting halt in global trade. The age of change would be possible if technological innovations enable rapid transition to renewable energy and Russia integrates closely to Europe as its energy resources lose its geopolitical significance.

The actors may take one of these scenarios and begin to work actively towards it or take another and work against it. Actors may also build their own scenario as a new combination of the factor values presented in the futures table in this article.