Scoring Systems May be Effective in Predicting Mortality Associated with Palliative Emergency Gastrointestinal Surgery: A Retrospective Observational Study

Background: Palliative emergency gastrointestinal surgery is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and weighing up the benefits and harms during the decision-making may be challenging. There are very few studies on surgery in palliative patient population. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate morbidity and mortality after palliative emergency gastrointestinal surgery and the usability of scoring systems in predicting the outcome. Methods: Consecutive adult patients undergoing palliative emergency surgery at a tertiary hospital during the period 2015 to 2016 were included. Pre- and post-operative functional status, morbidity and mortality of patients were assessed. The predictive value of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) and Palliative index (PI) in estimating morbidity and mortality were determined. Results: A total of 93 patients (age 69 [28–92] years, 51% female) were included. Typical indications for surgery were bowel obstruction (52%) and securing food intake (30%). Pre-operatively two patients (2.2%) were totally dependent in daily activities, while post-operatively the respective share was 34% at discharge from hospital. The incidence of post-operative complications was 37% and 14% died during the hospital stay. One-, three-month and one-year mortality rates were 41%, 63% and 87%, respectively. While ASA score, PI score and ACS NSQIP did not predict post-operative morbidity, both ASA score and ACS NSQIP SRC predicted post-operative mortality. Conclusions: Palliative emergency laparotomy is associated with significant post-operative mortality and morbidity. Scorings, such as ASA score and ACS NSQIP SRC predict mortality in this patient population.