The impact of modal shift on passenger car CO2 emissions in Tampere region

Reducing emissions from transport is an important part of climate change mitigation. In Finland, Tampere region has set ambitious modal shift targets to reduce transport emissions. This research analyses how much CO2 emissions from passenger cars would decrease in Tampere region, if the modal split targets would be achieved in 2030. Finnish car fleet model SALAMA is used to model car fleet development and calculate changes in the car fleet CO2 emissions to 2030. In addition, Finnish National Travel Survey data is used to analyse current mobility habits and to calculate, how much could annual passenger car mileage decrease, if the modal split target would be achieved. The results show that even though electrification of car fleet has a major effect on the emissions of the car fleet, drastic emission reduction requires also that the total passenger car mileage starts to decrease.